Preparing for inflation by investing in commodities
Raw materials
Posted by MoneyController on 20.11.2024
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Over the past two years, commodities have lagged behind the upward trajectory of the stock markets. Nevertheless, some investment experts urge not to underestimate their role.
Stocks and commodities seem to be travelling on two very different tracks: as Andrew Bary points out in ‘Barron's’, the S&P 500 Index has risen 25% this year, after having gained 26% in 2023; the Bloomberg Commodity Index, on the other hand, has fallen 3% this year and even 13% during 2023. It is not just a question of performance but also of investment volumes: Bary also points out that, overall, it can be estimated that around $250 billion is invested in financial products dedicated to commodities, compared to the $50 trillion invested in stocks included in the S&P 500.
There are those who believe, however, that commodities should not be undervalued, all the more so today: the fiscal policies of the administration led by Donald Trump, in fact, could cause inflation to rise; as Invesco commodity strategist Kathy Kriskey, mentioned in her article by Bary, argues, commodities could prove to be an investment that can effectively counter inflation. Kriskey talks about a portfolio allocation strategy of having five per cent of investments in commodities just for diversification purposes.
However, there is no shortage of factors that could put (downward) pressure on commodity prices: from trade tariffs to China's economic slowdown. The weight of the Asian giant has also been felt on oil prices, as Greg Sharenow, co-manager of a fund for Pimco, points out. In this sense, not only might the risks have already been priced in at least to some extent by the market, but there would be room for prices to rise should China's economic policies revive growth. This applies, for example, to a metal like copper, a commodity linked to electrification and thus to the energy transition. Commodity prices could therefore turn out to be cheap today to start investing in them, Kriskey concludes.
Apart from the volatility (mentioned by Kriskey in his article) it is almost impossible for a retail investor to invest directly in commodities: however, it is possible to invest in specific products, such as fund shares. In any case, before investing, it is always advisable to align one's investments with one's risk tolerance and, if in doubt, always seek advice from a professional in the sector.
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