Commodities, equities and inflation: useful signals coming?
Financial markets/economy
Posted by MoneyController on 26.11.2024
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Is inflation a problem we have temporarily left behind, or could it return sooner than we imagine?
Based on the promises made during the election campaign, it is expected that the economic measures of the next Trump administration will act in the direction of higher inflation: from tax-cutting policies to deficit spending to import duties. Are commodities and stocks showing any signs of a possible return of inflation? Isabel Wang on the ‘MarketWatch’ portal also asked this question.
As Wang explains, gold and oil prices have risen since Trump's election, but this does not mean that they signal in advance the arrival of a new wave of inflation. Donald Trump's now-famous ‘drill, drill, drill’ actually suggests,’ Brian Szytel, co-chief investment officer at Bahnsen Group, tells MarketWatch, ’that Trump's energy policy will encourage downward pressure on oil prices. With regard to gold, however, Wang writes that analysts believe that the price of gold has risen mainly due to the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine in recent weeks.
The comparison between ‘value’ and ‘growth’ stocks is also likely to give little indication of inflation. As Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer of SEI, explains, ‘value’ stocks tend to outperform if the trajectory of inflation is expected to be rising. However, adds Szytel, one has to consider the fact that these stocks today enjoy very cheap valuations compared to ‘growth’ stocks and therefore their outperformance could be explained by this price differential. In the comparison between small-caps and mid- and large-caps, small-caps tend to be favoured in an environment of falling inflation. And yet,' Smigiel explains, ’above-average results could mean a growth in the economy that is a harbinger of subsequent price increases.
In the conclusion of his article, Wang mentions what Sinead Colton Grant, chief investment officer of BNY Wealth, said: according to Sinead Colton Grant, it is too early to make inflation forecasts based on the behaviour of certain commodities or asset classes. In addition, BNY Wealth's chief investment officer continues, the Trump administration may be afraid of bringing back one of the central issues that animated the election campaign, namely the inflation issue, which weighed so heavily on voters' opinion of the outgoing administration led by Joe Biden.
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